Canada-US tariff dispute – what will success look like in 2 years? What are some scenarios?

What will success look like to President Trump? A scenario.

1. USMCA (Free Trade Agreement Changed): More car manufacturing in the US.  US access to Canadian dairy and other farm markets.  Etc. US and foreign companies investing in the US rather than Canada. More manufacturing jobs in the US
2. Canada has made massive cash increases to defence spending in 2025 and 2026.
3. Canada has made massive cash increases to border security in 2025 and 2026. Thousands of additional law enforcement hired. Dozens of Black Hawk helicopters purchased.

What will success look like to Canadian federal and provincial leaders in 2 years? A scenario.

1. President Trump has capitulated, admitted defeat, and dropped all tariff and non-tariff barriers within a matter of days after Feb 1, 2025.
2. USMCA re-negotiation results to no negative impact on Canada.
3. Everything remains the way it was in 2023.

What might another scenario look like to Canadian federal and provincial leaders in 2 years?

1. President Trump does not capitulate, admit defeat, or drop any tariff and non-tariff barriers.
2. USMCA (Free Trade Agreement Changed): More car manufacturing in the US.  US access to Canadian dairy and other farm markets.  Etc. US and foreign companies investing in the US rather than Canada. Fewer manufacturing jobs in Canada. Canadian companies relocating to the US.
3. No significant cash increase in either defense spending or boarder security in 2025 or 2026.
4. Massive govt borrowing to shield companies and individuals from tariff impacts results in higher interest rates and Canadian govt debt reaching junk status.
5. Large numbers of professionals move to the US.  Major drop in the number of medical professionals in Canada.

What are the scenarios you are considering?  Some of the scenarios must have negative outcomes. I am totally unable to predict what the future will look like in 2 years time.  Can anyone predict the future?