Is your company planning to fail? V4

What is the purpose of this article?

  • The audience for this article is corporate leadership (i.e. boards of directors, C-Suite, and controlling shareholders).
  • The focus is on the characteristics of corporate leadership talent which maximizes the chances the chances of your company failing (i.e. going out of business or providing poor returns to investors).
  • This article can also be viewed as a checklist of talent characteristics your corporate leadership should not have.

This is the third article in a series:

#1 Your company will fail i.e. go out of business or provide poor returns to investors.

#2 Why will your company fail? i.e. your corporate leadership is not superior to and differentiated from your competition.

This article does not provide tax, legal, or financial advice.

You must do your own research and fact-based analysis using current and relevant information.

You can download a PDF of this article from: Is your company planning to fail V4

Ensure that your corporate leadership core components of talent are significantly below the median of your competitors.

The core components of talent are:

#1 Self Awareness

There are two types of self awareness

  • Internal self-awareness: Leadership doesn’t clearly see and understand themselves. They don’t understand their competitive strengths, weaknesses, and capabilities.
  • External self-awareness: Corporate leadership doesn’t understand how others (customers, employees, shareholders, society, etc.) view them.

#2 Character

  • VME (Values, Morals, and Ethics. Employees, customers, and society perceive that corporate leadership lacks integrity, and has poor value, morals, and ethics. The decisions and behaviours do not reflect what the published and documented VME.
  • Courage Don’t have the courage to make the right decision. The right decision is often not: the cheapest, easiest, lowest risk to the company, lowest risk to you, and not what everyone else is doing.
  • Don’t have perseverance, especially against all odds.
  • Don’t know when to stop persevering. When they are digging themselves into a hole, they keep digging.

#3 Relationship skills:

  • Corporate leaderships lacks the ability to create and sustain a network of personal relationships inside and outside your company.
  • They have limited persuasion and negotiation skills. They cannot manage different points of view and interests.
  • They cannot create and maintain committed followers .

#4 Communications

  • Oral and written communications is poor. The messages that people perceive are very different from the messages corporate leadership intended to broadcast.
  • Corporate leadership has poor listening skills. Do not listen to customer, employees, society, etc.

#5 Crystallized intelligence

  • Corporate leadership had limited knowledge of historical events, thus does not prepare for those events and is surprised by those events e.g. Labelling as “black swans” pandemics, wars, liquidity freezes, etc.
  • Lacks current relevant knowledge e.g. customer needs, employee needs, technology, ways of thinking, paradigms and methodologies.

#6 Fluid intelligence

  • Corporate leadership is unable to solve problems if they don’t have past experience with the proble.
  • Makes decisions about the future, assuming that it will be the same as the past. E.g. customer needs, competition, employee needs, etc.
  • Assumes that the future can be predicted. Unable to create scenarios and plan for them.
  • When there is no map of the future, cannot provide direction or create a map,

#7 Cognitive skills

  • Limited long-term memory
  • Small working memory: able to only retain a small amount of information and knowledge while working on something.
  • Limited logic and reasoning: not able to use facts, evidence, rules, and principles to draw valid conclusions and make sound judgments. Errors, biases, and fallacies distorts their thinking and lead to poor outcomes.
  • Visual processing: Poor ability to interpret the information their eyes receive.
  • Processing speed: takes a long time to receive information, process it, and figure out what to do.
  • Attention
    1. Sustained – cannot stay focused for long periods of time.
    2. Selective – easily distracted.
    3. Divided – can only do one thing at a time.

#8 Cannot quickly learn and unlearn: paradigms, frameworks, methodologies, data, facts, knowledge. Unable to unlearn.

 #9 Creativity

  • Cannot think about a task or a problem in a new or different way.
  • Cannot create new ideas and act upon them.

What are your next steps?

#1 Understand how your board of directors and C-Suite talent is perceived.

#2 Data collection must be anonymous. A third-party can help provide anonymity.

#3 Define the components of talent to be assessed.

#4 A key set of questions for each component of talen can be:

  • Are they the very best in the industry? – no company has superior talent
  • Are they above average?
  • Are they average?
  • Are they below average?
  • Should one or more be replaced immediately?

Consider asking why they have that perception.

#5 Assessing the Board of directors

  • Each director assesses themselves and then the rest of the directors, as one group.
  • The C-Suite also does assessment of the board as a whole.
  • A random sample of employees, customers, suppliers also assess the board as a whole. One possible response could be that have no opinion.

#6 Assessing the C-Suite

  • Each C-Suite member assess themselves and then the rest of the C-Suite, as one group.
  • The board of directors also does assessment of the C-Suite as a whole.
  • A random sample of employees, customers, suppliers also assess the C-Suite as a whole. One possible response could be that have no opinion.

#7 Discuss the findings and document everyone’s views about what the implications are.  Have this discussion first in two groups: the board and the C-Suite.  Then have a joint meeting of the board and C-Suite to discuss.

What further reading should you do?

Your company will fail

https://koorandassociates.org/avoiding-business-failure/your-company-will-fail-v1/

Why will your company fail?

https://koorandassociates.org/avoiding-business-failure/why-will-your-company-fail/

What are the core components of talent?

https://koorandassociates.org/creating-business-value/core-components-of-talent/

Your company will fail. V1

Your company will fail. V1

 What is the purpose of this article?

This article enables a discussion about your company’s long-term survival and competitively differentiated returns to investors.

The audience for this article includes: individual investors, institutional investors, boards of directors, CEOs and the C-Suite.

This article does not provide tax, legal or financial advice.   You must do your own research and fact-based analysis using current and relevant information.

You can download a PDF of this article from: Your company wil fail. V1

What are the critical learnings in this article?

Most companies will: fail, disappear, or provide poor returns to their investors.

Most companies will not survive.

Few major companies survive:

  • 16% of major companies in 1962 survived until 1998.1
  • Of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 in 1957, only 74 remained on the list in 1997. Only 12 of those 74 outperformed the 1957-1997 S&P index.  An investor who put money into the survivors would have done worse than someone who invested only in the index.1
  • 31% of Fortune 500 companies went bankrupt or were acquired from 1995 to 2004.2
  • 52% of Fortune 500 companies went bankrupt, were acquired, or disappeared between 2000-2015.3
  • 50% of the S&P 500 will not be on the list in 10 years’ time.4

 Most public companies will not survive.

  • A Fortune 500 company will survive an average of 16 years.5
  • The typical half-life of a North American public company is 10 years.5
  • Global public companies with $250 million+ market cap have a typical half-life of 10 years.5
  • 28,853 companies traded on US public markets from 1950 to 2009. Half life was only 10.5 years.6

Global CEOs recognize that there’s a good chance their companies will not survive.

  • In 2022, 39% of global CEOs thought their company will not be economically viable in 10 years if their company continues its current course.7
  • In 2023, 45% of global CEO thought that their company would be financially viable for 10 years or less, if it kept running on its current path.8

Most companies will not recover from a crisis.

Companies do not recover from crisis.9

  • 20% of companies grow from insurgency to incumbency, but then two-thirds of them stall out and less than 1 in 7 stall-outs recover.
  • At any given moment, 5%-7% of companies are in free fall or about to tip into it. Only10%-15% of companies pull out of free fall.
  • 94% of large company executives site internal dysfunctions as their key barrier to continued profitable growth.

 Few major companies have sustained value creation.

Few major companies have sustained value creation:

  • McKinsey analyzed the world’s 2,393 largest corporations from 2010 to 2014. The top 20% generated 158% of the total economic profit (i.e. profit after cost of capital) created by those corporations.  This was an average economic profit of $1,426 million per year. The middle 60% generated little economic profit, an average of $47 million per year. The bottom 20% all generated negative economic profit, with an average loss of $670 million per year.10
  • Less than 13% of global companies had sustained value creation in the 1990s.11
  • 12% of public companies had sustained value creation from 2002 to 2012.12
  • Mark Leonard, CEO of Constellation Software, in his final annual CEO letter said: “Qualified and competent Directors are very rare, and not surprisingly, the track record of most boards is awful. According to the 2017 Hendrik Bessembinder study of approximately 26,000 stocks in the CRSP database, only 4% of the stocks generated all of the stock market’s return in excess of one-month T-Bills during the last 90 years. The other 96% of the stocks generated, in aggregate, the T-Bill rate over that period. This means that 4% of boards oversaw all the long-term wealth creation by markets during that period. Even more disturbing, the boards for over 50% of public companies saw their businesses generate negative returns during their entire existence as public companies.”13
  • John Rekenthaler study of the largest 5,000 US companies stock prices rom Jan 2011, to Dec 2020 showed that after 10 years, 42% ended in the black, 36% lost money, and 22% had disappeared. 14

Major changes almost always fail or create limited value.

12% of change programs succeed. 38% produced less than half the expected results. 50% diluted the value of the company.15

Most public companies underperform the indices.

  • The 1,000 biggest publicly traded US stock from January 2011, to Dec 2020, 80% underperformed the Morningstar U.S. Stock index16
  • In 2023, 72% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index, underperformed the index.17

Most actively managed public market funds underperform the indices.

Over a 20-year period, over 93% of large cap US funds underperformed the S&P 500 index

The average hedge funds underperforms the public market indices.19

  • From 2011 to 2020, the average hedge fund underperformed the S&P 500 every year.
  • In 2007 Warren Buffet made a bet with Protegé Partners that an S&P 500 index fund would outperform a group of hedge funds. Protegé Partners selected 5 fund-of-funds, which were invested in a total of 200 funds. In the 2008-2017 time period, a $1 million investment with Protegé Partners selection would have earned $220,000. The S&P 500 index earned $854,000. In 9 of the 10 years, Protegé Partners selection under performed the S&P 500 index. Warren Buffet won the bet.

Many private equity funds underperform the public market indices.

As of June 30, 2020 – the 10-year US private equity index IRR was 13.77%. The SP& 500 index was 13.99%20

Many venture capital funds underperform the public market indices.

Half of VC funds underperform the public markets.21

What are your next steps?

  • Define the words/concepts/data you’re using, in a glossary. I’ve seen major confusion when the same words mean different things to different people. E.g. S&P 500 Index 500 vs S&P 500 Total Return Index vs S&P 500 Weighted Index
  • Do your own fact-based data collection and analysis, using current relevant data.
  • In order to look at your company’s performance, you need people with the mindset of an investor deploying their own cash. You need to engage with them or with people that have that mindset.  Note that the mindset of an investor with their own cash may be very different from and institutional investor mindset.

Footnotes

1 “Creative Destruction – why companies that are built to last, underperform the market”, by Richard Foster & Sarah Kaplan

2 “Unstoppable” by Chris Zook, 2007, page 7

3 Accenture 2016

4 “2018 Longevity Report” by Innosight Consulting

5 “Corporate Longevity”, Credit Suisse, February 7, 2017

6 “Scale” by Geoffrey West, 2017, Penquin Press, New York, Page 402

7 PWC’s 26th annual global CEO Survey

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/ceo-survey-2023.html

8 PWC’s 27th annual global CEO Survey

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/ceo-survey.html

9 “The founders mentality”, by Chris Zook and James Allen, 2016

10 Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, “Strategy to beat the odds”, McKinsey Quarterly February 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds

11 “Profit from the Core” by Chris Zook. 1,800 companies in seven countries with sales in excess of $500 million analyzed.  Criteria were: 5.5% after inflation sales growth; 5.5% real earnings growth; total shareholder returns exceed cost of capital.

12 Christoph Loos, CEO Hilti Group, Swiss AmCham Luncheon, September 1, 2015.  Analysis based on about 2,000 public companies in 2002 with revenues greater than $500 million.  Sustainable value creation defined as: real revenue growth exceeding 5.5% per year, real profit growth exceeding 5.5% per year, and earning cost of capital.

13 https://www.csisoftware.com/docs/default-source/investor-relations/presidents-letter/presidents-letter-april-2018-final.pdf

14 “How many stocks beat the indices” John Rekenthaler, April 26, 2021 Morningstar

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-many-stocks-beat-indexes

15 “It’s 8-to-1 against Your Change Program”, Bain website, Managing Change Blog, 2017 June 23

https://www.bain.com/insights/its-8-to-1-against-your-change-program-how-to-beat-the-odds/

16 How Many Stocks Beat the Indexes? Unlike the children of Lake Wobegon, most companies are below average. John Rekenthaler Apr 26, 2021

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-many-stocks-beat-indexes

17 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-record-share-of-s-p-500-stocks-have-underperformed-the-index-in-2023-as-weirdest-bull-market-in-decades-marches-on-5d3b4cf5

18 SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2023 report

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/article/spiva-us/

19 “The S&P 500 index out-performed hedge funds over the past 10 years. An it wasn’t’ even close”

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-sp-500-index-out-performed-hedge-funds-over-the-last-10-years-and-it-wasnt-even-close/

20 Cambridge Associates, Private equity and selected benchmarks 2020 Q2

21 Robert S. Harru, Tim Jenkinson, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ruediger Stucke

Has persistence persisted in private equity?

November 2020, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at University of Chicago

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BFI_WP_2020167.pdf

Critical learnings from Collision 2023.

What is the purpose of this article?

  • Share my critical learnings from my three-day attendance at Collision 2023 in June 2023. Collision was a North American startup conference with 36,000+attendees, ranging from pre-revenue founders to large established companies, and investors ranging from angel investors to multi-billion-dollar funds.
  • The critical learnings section below are my key learnings from Collision. I believe that these learnings apply to any size company.
  • The observations section below are some of the facts and opinions shared by presenters. I believe these have massive short and long-term implications.  Reach out to me if you wish to discuss the implications.
  • The learnings and observations in this article are only a tiny subset of my 48 pages of notes.

You can download a PDF of this article from: Critical learnings from Collision 2023

What are the critical learnings in this article?

  • There is close to a universal belief that the critical aspects of talent are: collaboration, learning, and problem solving – and that these are hard to find. Hard skills are easier to find but of less value.
  • Generative AI was a universal them. Jobs with limited skills and experience will be eliminated or dramatically reduced in the next three years e.g. call centre staff, law firm associates.
  • There continued to be unlimited money available to start and grow companies BUT due diligence has dramatically improved with a stronger focus on competitively differentiated talent.
  • If a company can train, develop, and grow an employee who had spent decades in prison, I wonder why many companies are unable to train, develop, and grow their employees. Too often the easy approach seems to be fire and replace.

 What were my key observations?

  • The world is no longer predicable.
  • Hire people for purpose and values.
  • Ask people why they stay at the company. Do a NPS (Net Promotor Score) with current employees.
  • There’s a company that helps other companies hire former prisoners. This company hired someone who had been in prison for decades.  The person first started in customer support and ended up as a customer support manager.
  • A survey of over 200 Chief Technology officers revealed the top three things they were looking for in employees: ability to collaborate, ability to learn, ability to problem solve. Coding skills and knowledge of coding languages was not in the top 3.
  • 15 years ago, the competitive differentiator for software engineers was their coding skills. Today, the competitive differentiator is problem solving.
  • The most important factors in selecting founders are: what will enable them to survive the hard times; why are they doing the startup; what is motivating them.
  • Facebook paid $1 billion for Instagram with 13 employees. The capabilities of current and emerging tools will enable a single person to create and sell a company for $1 billion.
  • Apple Vision Pro will make remote work similar to being in person. Collaboration, team meetings, etc. will be far more effective than today.
  • Look at the customer ROI and customer risk, not just the company ROI and company risk.
  • Deliver to customers far more value than price. Willingness to pay is based on value.
  • Casetext, a legal AI firm, has launched CoCounsel, a legal AI assistant with the potential to replace law firm associates. Thomson Reuters announced they’re buying Casetext for $650 million US.
  • AI will change the talent pyramid in Financial Services.
  • Generative AI will increase polarization in society.
  • 50% of the people in a session I attended, use AI to create the emails they send.
  • ChatGbt-4 already scores in the top 10% in LSAT and SAT tests.
  • The capabilities of Generative AI are doubling every 3 months.
  • In the near future, everyone will be able to create movies themselves with personalized content. E.g. each person could be a character in the totally realistic movie.
  • Expedia has 70,000 terabytes of data.
  • The number of pre-seed and seed fintech raises are at a record level this year. The total dollar amount is lower.
  • A good portfolio company will run with bad news to their Venture Capital investors.

What are your next steps?

  • Identify the roles that have the great impact on the value proposition for your customers and users.
  • Determine the additional value the roles must provide, in this hyper-competitive world we live in.
  • Identify the additional talent requirements.
  • Determine how best, from a customer perspective, to meet those requirements i.e. what combination of human and Generative AI.
  • Benchmark your talent assessment, hiring, developing, promotion, succession and exits process, technology, and staffing relative to the best companies in the world. What are the implications in terms of your company’s long-term success? What changes do you need to make? Start with the board of directors.

 What further reading should you do?

Generative AI – by McKinsey

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/generative-ai

Is your company planning to fail?

https://koorandassociates.org/avoiding-business-failure/is-your-company-planning-to-fail/

Many are losing hope in our polarized and distrustful world.

What is the purpose of this article?

Provide business leaders with a perspective on how global society is perceiving the current world.

This article highlights a few key findings from the 2023 Edelman Trust Surveys (Global and Canadian Edition). All data is global, unless otherwise noted.

You can download a PDF of this article from: Many are losing hope in our polarized and distrustful world

Fear and anxiety are increasing and hope for the future decreasing

  • Only 28% of Canadians believe that their family will be better off in 5 years.

89% worry about job loss, 76% worry about climate change and 72% worry about nuclear war.

  • 62% believe their country’s social fabric has grown too weak to serve as a foundation for unity and common purpose.

We live in a polarizing world, with leaders driving polarization

There is limited trust in government

  • 46% of people believe government is a source of false or misleading information. Only 30% feel that way about business.
  • 41% trust government leaders while 64% trust the CEO they work for.
  • Only business is seen as competent and ethical. Government is seen as less competent and unethical.

Globally, 62% see the rich and powerful are dividing forces pulling people apart, and 49% feel the same way about government leaders

In the US:

  • 63% of the top quartile income earners trust institutions, while only 40% in the bottom quartile trust institutions.
  • Only 26% of US Republicans trust government while 61% of Democrats trust government

Few people would help, live, or work with those who strongly disagreed them.

  • Only 30% would help those in need
  • 20% would be willing to live in the same neighbourhood or have them as a coworker

What are your next steps?

  • Discuss the implications of the above findings: for the members of your company’s ecosystem; and for your company’s long-term success.
  • Survey the members of your company’s ecosystem. Compare those finding to Edelman’s findings. What are the implications of the differences?
  • Identify future scenarios, some better and some worse than today. What are the implications and what actions must you take to minimize the risk of long-term company failure?
  • Assess the actions and communications of your company. Are you building or destroying trust? Are you a unifying or polarizing force in society?

What further reading should you do?

2023 Edelman Trust Barometer – global report

https://www.edelman.com/trust/2023/trust-barometer

2023 Edelman Trust Barometer – Canada

https://www.edelman.ca/sites/g/files/aatuss376/files/2023-03/2023%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20EN.pdf

Society’s trust in corporate leadership and political leadership is low

https://koorandassociates.org/values-morals-and-ethics/societys-trust-in-corporate-leadership-and-political-leadership-is-low/

Is your company actually a startup?

What is the purpose of this article?

Help shareholders, the board of directors, and C-Suite have a fact-based discussion regarding the status of your company.

You can download a PDF of this article from: Is your company actually a startup

 What are the critical learnings in this article?

  • The leaders of many long-established companies are unaware that their company has become a startup.
  • As a result, the wrong type of talent is in place, taking the wrong actions.

Where is your company it its life cycle?

#1 a startup

A startup is a temporary organization designed to search out a repeatable, scalable, and profitable business model with lots of potential customers who are willing and able to pay to solve their problems and needs.   Startups are not building a solution.  They are building a tool to learn what solution to build.

#2 most startups fail or end up as small companies.

#3 A scaling, growing profitable business enabling customers to achieve a competitively differentiated value proposition. Market share is growing, the overall market may be growing, customers are strongly recommending the company, employees want to join and stay, etc,

#4 Failure may occur at any time.  The company may end up being a startup again and not realize it.

#5 A large, slow growing or static company. Market size isn’t growing, market share isn’t growing, etc.

#6 Most large companies fail or disappear. Market size shrinks, market share shrinks customers no longer perceive that they achieve a competitively differentiated value proposition, hard to hire and keep the best employees.  The company has become a startup again.

#7 The company is constantly improving and changing to avoid becoming a start.  Transformation is continuous rather than a one-time event. Ongoing talent management transformation, starting with the board of directors, is the foundation for long -erm success.

The company can become a startup again at any time, but the leaders don’t realize that.

  • A company, at any stage, is competing in a hyper-competitive world, with constant massive changes in the ecosystem. A company can suddenly become a startup.
  • Companies must be constantly improving, changing, and transforming to avoid becoming a startup. There are trillions of dollars of capital available to fund the right talent.
  • Exceptional talent is much rarer than capital. The ability to determine future talent requirements, assess the future potential of talent, and successfully develop that talent is the core foundation of long-term growth.

 What are your next steps?

  • Do a fact-based analysis of where your company is in its lifecycle.
  • Identify the changes you need to your ongoing talent management processes.
  • Identify the changes you need to your talent, using your new talent management processes.
  • Your new talent will create and execute the appropriate plans.

 What further reading should you do?

Is your company planning to fail? Koor and Associates

https://koorandassociates.org/avoiding-business-failure/is-your-company-planning-to-fail/