How do you invest in a private company? V2

Purpose of this article

  • Outline questions to ask as you’re considering whether or not to invest in a private company. The questions are focused on a long-term established company.  The company would not be a candidate for early stage or venture capital investing.
  • This article asks questions which may not be part of a standard financial, legal, and human resources due diligence.
  • This article does not cover all of the required due diligence tasks, which include financial analysis, legal reviews, intellectual property reviews, etc.

There are 10 sets of questions to consider:

  • Question #1 focuses on the company’s potential market size and understanding of it’s customers.
  • Question #2 focuses on the potential to grow the value of the company.
  • Questions #3-#10 focus on your relationship with the company and how you’ll get value from your investment.

You may download a PDF of this article from: How do you invest in a private company V2

#1 What is the current and future market place demand for the company’s solution?

Who are the target customers and users? What is their value proposition? Value proposition is the customers and users perception of value.  What are all the financial and non-financial benefits achieved? e.g. time savings, convenience, status, reducing negative emotions or risks, benefits achieved (financial and non-financial) achieved by the customers?  What are all the costs incurred by the customer (purchase costs, costs to switch to your company, other adoption costs, ongoing costs)?

Market Size Metrics

Market size = (The number people (or organizations) with an urgent problem or need that they are willing to spend money) times (the amount they are both willing and able to spend).

What is TAM (Total Addressable Market)?

  • What would be the company’s revenue if 100% of the customers demanding a solution to their problem bought the company’s solution. This assumes all potential geographies, distribution channels and partners.  The number of customers demanding a solution will be fewer than the number of customers that have the problem or need.
  • The best way to calculate TAM is with a bottom up calculation, starting with a clear description of the target customer segments, their problems and needs, and then considering the subset of customers who will actually provide revenue, and the revenue per customer. Recognize not everyone in every country will be able to afford the solution.

What is SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)?

  • This is the portion of the TAM that is within the reach of the company’s current geographies, distribution channels, and partners, and the company’s ability to deliver and support their solution. This still assumes 100% market share of those customers demanding a solution.

 What is SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market or Share of Market)?

  • SOM will be lower than SAM for three reasons: there will be competitors, customers who are demanding a solution may not actually buy a solution, and there will be an adoption rate ranging from early innovators to laggards.

Customer Metrics

New customer value achievement leading indicator (e.g. for Slack it was 2,000 team messages sent within 60 days).

New customer success metric (e.g. % of new customers achieving new customer value achievement indicator within 60-90 days).

NPS (Net Promoter Score) The single most important question is asking  “Would you recommend our solution to others?”  (Follow on questions could be “If so, why?  If not, why not?”) This metric is known as NPS.  What is your NPS? Above 0 is good. Above 50 is excellent. Above 70 is world class. How do you compare to your industry and competitors? What has been your NPS trend?

The Net Promoter Score concept was initially developed by Bain.  The following is a link to the Bain website homepage for Net Promoter Score, which contains several short articles:

http://www.netpromotersystem.com/about/why-net-promoter.aspx

The following is a quick overview of using Net Promoter Scores:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shephyken/2016/12/03/how-effective-is-net-promoter-score-nps/#1b1391b423e4

What have been the findings and trends from ongoing customer interviews and surveys?

What are the scenarios for future market size?

What will be the impact on customer problems and needs due to potential startups, actions of current competitors, and established companies entering the market place either organically or by acquisitions? Remember what happened to Blackberry.  The customers no longer had problems and needs which the keyboard-based Blackberry could solve.

#2 What will drive the value growth of the company?

There are four ways to grow the value of the company:

  • Remain focused on the problems and needs of current customers, but increase the number of customers by expanding geographies, channels, and partners.
  • Target new customers, with different problems and needs which the current capabilities of the company can solve by creating new solutions.
  • Eliminate unprofitable customers, customer segments, geographies, channels, and partners.
  • Improve the internal operations of the company: develop current talent, acquire new talent, eliminate inappropriate talent, improve or change the processes, improve or change the technology. Talent includes: the board of directors, CEO, C-Suite, employees, advisors, consultants, contractors, and outsourcers.

The above four value growth opportunities could be addressed organically, by acquisitions or divestitures.

How are you going to help drive the value growth of the company, in addition in addition to your capital?

  • Using your network to help obtain customers, employees, and other investors?
  • Using your knowledge, skills, and experience to serve on the board of directors or advisory board?
  • Coaching and mentoring the CEO or C-Suite?

#3 Who will buy the company or your shares in the future?

  • A strategic buyer?
  • A financial buyer?
  • An owner/operator?
  • Employees?
  • IPO?

#4 Why will they buy it?

  • Growth potential?
  • Operational improvement potential?
  • Access to company’s customers, distribution channels, and partner?
  • Access to company’s talent and intellectual property?
  • Leading and defensible market position?
  • Non-concentrated channels and partners?
  • Sustainable margins?
  • Proven management team with successors?

#5 What will they pay for it?

  • Multiple of EBITDA or free cash flow?
  • Terms and conditions?

#6 What is the exit plan?

  • You or major shareholder(s) die?
  • One shareholder wants to exit?
  • Your plan to exit in Y years? If so, how?

#7 How will you and other shareholders take value out of the company?

  • Final sale of the company?
  • Interim financing enabling your partial or total exit?
  • Dividends?
  • Products or services?

#8 How will decisions be made?

  • What decision will be reserved for shareholders and what is the decision process?
  • What % of equity and what % of shareholders will be required for decisions?
  • What veto power will individual shareholders have?
  • Does the CEO have any veto power?
  • What decisions, if any, will be made by the board of directors?
  • What is the delegation of authority to the CEO?

#9 What is your fit with the other shareholders and management team?

  • Do you have a common set of values, morals, and ethics?
  • Can you work together?

#10 What will be in the shareholder’s agreement?

  • What the shareholder objectives are?
  • The answers to questions #6, #7, and #8.

Your next steps

  • Define your investment decision-making criteria and process. This includes: the financial aspects of your overall long-term financial plan, and your long-term life plan.
  • Which criteria are deal-killers?
  • Define the overall due diligence process – structured data collection and data analysis.
  • Execute your structured data collection, data analysis, and decision-making process.

Recognize that emotions and gut-feelings will still play a key part in your final decision.

Further reading

  • How can a private company sell securities in Ontario?

https://koorandassociates.org/selling-a-company-or-raising-capital/how-can-a-private-company-sell-securities-in-ontario/

 

Who launches a successful startup?

Purpose of this article

  • To help you decide if you’re the type of person who should launch a startup.
  • Outline what you should do in the first two weeks if you are thinking of launching a startup.
  • Recommend some learning you should undertake, to help you make your decision.

You may download a PDF of this article from:  Who launches a successful startup

What is a startup?

  • A startup is a temporary organization designed to search out a repeatable and scalable business model. Lots of learning experiments are carried out. The focus is on getting some delighted cash paying customers.
  • A business model describes how a company creates value for itself while delivering products or services to customers. What are you building and for whom? What urgent problems and needs are you solving?

Week one

I recommend that you read the following two books.  They are a fact-based portrayal of the challenges founders face, and what the characteristics are of successful founders. Movies, TV, books, and founders often paint a picture of how easy startup success is.

“The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers” by Ben Horowitz.

  • Ben describes the incredibly tough challenges and experiences he went through in the process of his ultimately successful startup. He then became a successful venture capitalist. Most startups fail.
  • As you read the book, think about your own ability to deal with the challenges than Ben went through and that you would be going through. Not only do you need perseverance and ingenuity,  you also need an emotional and mental support network.

“The founder’s dilemmas – anticipating and avoiding the pitfalls that can sink a startup” by Noam Wasserman.

  • He was the Professor of Clinical Entrepreneurship at the University of Southern California and the director of USC’s Founders Central Initiative. The book is based on his study of 10,000 founders from 3,500 startups.
  • As you are reading the book, think about whether you are the type of person who would succeed as a founder. You are more likely to make more money as an employee rather than launching your own company.

Week two

  • Are you driven by having a great idea OR are you driven by wanting to solve an urgent problem or need for a large number of people?
  • What’s your ability to quickly learn new things and transform yourself?
  • Take the free video course “How to build a startup”

https://www.udacity.com/course/how-to-build-a-startup–ep245

Take detailed notes. There is little value in passively watching without taking notes.

Your next steps

You need to make a decision on whether or not to continue.  This could take days or weeks, especially as you involve your life partner and support network. Some of the factors to consider include:

  • Do you recognize that you are launching a search for a business, which is much different from launching a business?
  • How will you, your life partner, family, and friends feel at the end of several years when your startup fails? Few startups succeed.
  • Are you passionate and driven to succeed?
  • Launching a startup to make a lot of money is the wrong reason.
  • Are you focused on solving a problem, meeting the need of a large number of people OR do you just want to build something?
  • Are you able to learn the problems and needs of a large number of people and then change your startups focus to meet those needs?
  • Do you have the cash (personally, from family and friends) to grow the startup until there is revenue. Few startups are able to raise cash without revenue.  What would be the impact on you, your life partner, family, friends when your startup loses all the investment – which is the most likely outcome?
  • Do you have a co-founder with a different set of skills? Most startups have 2-4 co-founders to provide a range of skills and provide backup if a founder suddenly exits due to health or personal reasons.

Footnootes

1 https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cbi-content/research-reports/The-20-Reasons-Startups-Fail.pdf

 

 

Pitch evaluation – what are deal killers?

Purpose:

This article has a two-fold purpose

  • Encourage startup founders to research the deal-killer evaluation criteria used by investors to quickly determine whether to devote further time to learn about a startup. Given the massive number of startups looking for funding, time constraints force investors to be able to say “no” as quickly as possible.
  • Encourage board of directors and CEOs of established companies to also develop their own deal-killer criteria as a filter for the many proposals and recommendations made to them.

This article:

  • Reflects my personal point of view. Investors, board of directors, and CEOs will have their own deal-killer criteria.
  • Is not intended to score a pitch or enable a relative ranking of pitches.

You may download a PDF of this article from: Pitch evaluation – what are deal killers

My deal-killer criteria are based on 3rd party research regarding the 3 greatest contributors to startup failure?1

This research study analyzed 101 startup failures and identified the most frequently cited reasons for failure.  Usually there were several reasons for failure.

  • 42% of the time built a solution looking for a problem i.e. no market need.
  • 29% of the time running out of cash.
  • 23% of the time, not the right team.

Deal-killer criterion #1 What is the size of the market need?

How many customers believe they have an urgent enough problem or need that they

  • Are willing to spend money to address;
  • Have the money to address;
  • Have put a value, including what would pay, on addressing the problem or need.

Has the pitch described the customers’ value-proposition?

This is the customers perception of value.  What are all the financial and non-financial benefits achieved? e.g. time savings, convenience, status, reducing negative emotions or risks, benefits achieved (financial and non-financial) achieved by the customers?  What are all the financial costs incurred by the customer (purchase costs, costs to switch to your company, other adoption costs, ongoing costs and non-financial costs (e.g. time, social status, existing relationships, etc.)

To understand the customers perception of value requires direct input from potential customers, by a combination of interviews and surveys.  Most of the pitch I hear reflect the either the founders opinions/hopes of the startup or a one-page slide showing market size in the $10s of billions, based on a consulting/research study.  These startups are taking the ”build it and they will come approach” of first creating the solution and then hoping that there are customers.

What is TAM (Total Addressable Market)?

  • What would be the startup’s revenues with their future solution if 100% of the global customers demanding a solution to their problem bought the startup’s solution? TAM is the case with no competitors.
  • The solution built in the first 12 months is only a subset of the solution which in 5 years time will address TAM i.e. TAM depends upon the specific nature of the solution at a point in time. Note the phrase “demanding a solution”. You must not include in TAM ghost customers who are not demanding a solution.  If customers don’t know they have a problem and are not demanding a solution, the startup is planning to fail.
  • There is a critical difference between customer needs and customer demands. Customers have a large number of needs.  Demand is customers deciding that they will spend time, effort, and money to get a solution for what they believe is an urgent need.  Often this means that customers will spend less money to meet other needs.
  • Is the startup’s TAM large enough to launch and grow the company? For example, the global smart phone TAM is huge, but the global TAM for smart phones that have a keyboard is tiny.
  • The best way to calculate TAM is with a bottom up calculation, starting with a clear description of the target customer segment, its needs, and then considering the subset of customers who will actually provide revenue, and the revenue per customer. Recognize not everyone in every country will be able to afford the solution.

What is SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)?

  • This is the portion of the TAM that is within the reach the startup’s distribution channels and partners, and your ability to deliver and support your solution. Geography may be a constraint. This still assumes 100% market share of those customers demanding a solution. SAM will change over time, as growth occurs in geography, the number of distribution channels and partners, and the volumes from each distribution channel and partner.
  • How will customers connect with the startup?  If they are seeking a solution, how will they find the startup?  How will the startup make customers aware of the solution?

What is SOM (Serviceable Attainable Market or Share of Market)?

SOM will be lower than SAM for two reasons: the startup may have competitors, and every customer who is demanding a solution may not actually buy a solution.

Deal-killer criterion #2 When will the startup run out of cash?

This is rarely presented in the pitch. If there is time, follow-on questions can provide insight:

  • How many months out does the monthly cash flow forecast go (many startups lack this)?
  • Given current customer income and costs plus existing cash in the bank, how many months until cash is gone?
  • Assuming that there are three future forecasts, how many months until the cash is gone in the most conservative forecast?
  • How many weeks have they assumed that it will take to close the current financing round?
  • How many weeks have they assumed from the end of the current financing round until the next financing round?
  • The average seed stage round takes 12 ½ weeks. 20% of the startup require 20 weeks or longer. 20% of the startups require 6 weeks or less.2
  • A fund-raising round can take a long time. This research study examined 13,916 financing events.3 The average time between fundraising rounds was 20.6 months. The time between rounds ranged from 6 months, to 35 months, 68% of the time.  e. 16% of the time less than 6 months and 16% of the time longer than 35 months
  • The above fact-based research was done prior to COVID-19.

Deal-killer criterion #3 Does the team have relevant experience?

  • Assess the skills and experience requirements implied by: the target customers, the value proposition, the nature of the solution to be built, the needed partners and suppliers, etc. Have the founders demonstrated that the team (which includes investors and advisors) has the relevant experience, skills, and network.
  • Most founding teams have gaps. Have the founders identified the gaps and milestones to close the gaps.

How do I use the deal-killer criteria?

I focus on whether the founders are doing the right thing, that they have the right approach and mindset.  I don’t expect the perfect research and perfect analysis.

Deal-killer criterion #1 What is the size of the market need?

  • If the founders do not believe they need direct input from customers, the deal is dead. Most of the startups I meet fall into this category.
  • If the founders market size slide shows a massive number and at the same time does not reflect understanding of TAM, SAM, and SOM the deal is dead.  I cannot tell from a pitch if the founders don’t understand the concept or are being deliberately deceitful. Unfortunately, many founders are not coachable on these concepts.  I’ve also met deceitful founders.

Deal-killer criterion #2 When will the startup run out of cash?

Founders rarely give enough information in a pitch to assess this. There’s rarely enough time in a pitch Q&A session to ask the detailed questions regarding cash flow. The questions can be a follow-up action for the founders after the presentation. This is a deal-deal killer if:

  • The monthly cash flow forecast does not exist.
  • The founders have an extremely optimistic view of how quickly funds can be raised.
  • The founders are already almost out of cash.

Deal-killer criterion #3 Does the team have relevant talent and experience?

  • I don’t expect the team have had a long history of experience in the target marketplace, target technology, etc. Historical knowledge often becomes obsolete.  What’s key is current knowledge and the mindset to keep that knowledge up-to-date.
  • I expect that the team has learned about the customers, the customer perception of value, competitors, partners, technology etc.
  • The team includes: founders and key leaders, advisors, board directors, and major investors.

Your next steps

  • Define you own deal-killer criteria.
  • Define in detail the criteria and process for evaluating the team’s relevant talent and experience.
  • Pitches for major change to an established company (e.g. transformation) will require a third party to assess the board of directors and key advisors and consultants for their relevant talent, skills, experience, and personal networks.

Footnotes

1 https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cbi-content/research-reports/The-20-Reasons-Startups-Fail.pdf

2“What we learned from 200 startups who raised $360 million”, Professor Tom Eisenmann, Harvard Business School, and DocSend

https://www.slideshare.net/DocSend/docsend-fundraising-research-49480890

3 https://medium.com/journal-of-empirical-entrepreneurship/how-much-runway-should-you-target-between-financing-rounds-478b1616cfb5

What are the different kinds of startup pitches? V2

This article has a two-fold purpose:

  • For startups at the pre-Series A stage, outline the different kinds of startup pitches.
  • For established companies, outline different ways to describe their companies, business units, and major projects.

You may download a PDF of this article from: What are the different kinds of startup pitches V2

The purpose of the pitch is to convince investors when you first meet them that they must learn more about you, and your company.  Investors are swamped with pitches every day; therefore, most investors seek to be able to say “No” as quickly as possible to minimize their time.

Many investors and funds have deal killer criteria.  These are the few criteria, which if you don’t address in your pitch, result in the investor immediately saying “”No”.

Investors will not write a cheque based just on the pitch.  Investors wanting to learn more about you results in further presentations, meetings, and due diligence.

There are two types of pitch decks:

  • The in-person deck. This deck supports the someone doing a presentation.  The bulk of the information is communicated orally. The deck is very visual with a limited number of words and numbers.
  • The standalone pitch deck. This is designed to be read without someone speaking. This deck contains the all the key talking points, words, and numbers.  This deck is often left behind after a presentation and often emailed to potential investors.

There is a difference between a pitch (which is what the founder says) and the pitch deck (which are the slides).

The objectives of the pitch are:

  • Convince investors why the company must exist.
  • Be memorable – the investor must remember you the next day. Otherwise you won’t be called back.
  • Be professional – look and speak as if you already are the CEO of a successful company. This includes your body language, how you stand, and how you speak.
  • Create a trust, confidence, and emotional connection between the investor(s) and presenters.
  • Create the excitement and interest in the investors to learn more, while demonstrating your oral presentation skills and ability to have a Q&A dialogue.
  • Be able to communicate with an audience that has no previous information about you. Assume that the investors are not experts regarding your customers, your industry, or your technology.

You need to answer seven common key investor questions:

  • What do you do?
  • How big is the market?
  • What is your progress?
  • What is your unique insight?
  • What’s your business model?
  • Who is on your team?
  • What do you want?

More detailed information regarding these 7 questions is available at;

https://blog.ycombinator.com/how-to-pitch-your-company/

Your approach during your presentation should be:

  • Engage the investors emotionally with the story about the startup.
  • Make a great first impression. The first few seconds can make or break you.

The one sentence pitch

“My company (company name) Is developing (a defined offering) to help (a target audience) (solve a problem) (with secret sauce).”

The one sentence pitch is further described in this link to the Founder Institute:

https://fi.co/madlibs

The 2 sentence Email Test

The Email Test. Write up a two-sentence explanation of what your startup does then email it to a smart friend. Ask them to explain it back to you in different words. If they ask any clarifying questions, you need to revise your pitch. It’s important to revise your two-sentence pitch because you can’t add explanations as you would in conversation.

Further information is available at:

 Your one-minute pitch

When you have only 60 seconds to make your pitch, the critical elements are:

  • Who are you? < 5 seconds. One sentence.
  • What’s the customer problem? < 20 seconds. 3-5 sentences.
  • What’s your solution? < 25 seconds. 2-3 sentences
  • What’s your ask? < 5 seconds. One sentence.
  • What’s the one sentence everyone in the audience needs to remember? < 5 seconds/

What can we learn from a study of 200 pitch decks that were successful in fundraising?1

How long does an investor spend to look at a pitch deck emailed to them? 3 minutes 44 seconds

How many seconds does an investor spend on each part of the pitch deck emailed to them?

  • Financials……..……23.2
  • Team……….……….22.8
  • Competition………..16.6
  • Why now?…………….16.3
  • Company purpose…15.3
  • Business model…….14.9
  • Product…………..….13.9
  • Market size………….13.3
  • Problem………….….11.3
  • Solution………………10.6

 What was the average structure of the pitch deck, what % of startups had the section, and what was the average number of slides in each section?

  • Company purpose…73% 1.8 slides
  • Problem…………….88% 2.0 slides
  • Solution…………….69% 1.2 slides
  • Why now……………46% 1.7 slides
  • Market size…………73% 1.4 slides
  • Product………….….96% 5.0 slides
  • Team …………..…100% 1.2 slides
  • Business model……81% 3.4 slides
  • Competition………..65% 1.4 slides
  • Financials…………..58% 2.3 slides

 What are investor expectations for your pitch?

  • Do your research to find out what investor expectations are for your pitch.
  • Many investment funds and angel groups publish their expectations on their website. Ask other startups who have presented to the investors.
  • Prior to your pitch to investors, ask them what are critical items they want to understand and hear. Validate these by repeating them at the beginning of yoru presentation.  Success is harder if all you do is give the identical pitch to every single investor and haven’t spent time to learn about them.

The following are some examples of investor expectations:

Maple Leaf Angels (Toronto)

The following is a link to their pitch deck template on their website.  They also publish their criteria for evaluating pitches and their data room expectations.

https://mapleleafangels.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Elevate-Your-Pitch-Template-Deck.pdf

The following are links to what three organizations have defined as their pitch deck expectations

  • MaRS Discovery District in Toronto

https://www.marsdd.com/mars-library/how-to-create-a-pitch-deck-for-investors/

  • Sequoia

https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/writing-a-business-plan/

  • Y Combinator

https://www.ycombinator.com/library/2u-how-to-build-your-seed-round-pitch-deck

 Your next steps

  • Create the different kindsof startup pitches.
  • Before you present, research you target audience to understand their expectations.
  • Change your oral and written presentation to meet the critical requirements of your target audience.

 Footnotes:

1 “What we learned from 200 startups who raised $360 million”, Professor Tom Eisenmann, Harvard Business School, and DocSend

https://www.slideshare.net/DocSend/docsend-fundraising-research-49480890

Further reading

  • Excellent insights into creating and giving your pitch

https://medium.com/crane-taking-flight/fundraising-why-you-shouldnt-just-copy-sequoia-s-pitch-deck-template-4b32ac60d93a?

  • What is “Company purpose”

https://medium.com/@iskender/the-perfect-pitch-deck-designed-by-a-vc-902842ce7f38

 

Education, skills, and tools for an early stage startup. V1

The purpose of this article.

Outline what an early stage startup requires to understand the potential customers, users and the competition. Too many startups fail because:

  • They start to build something (e.g. “a cattle ranch”) and then discover there is no significant market demand (e.g. discover that the potential customers are “vegetarians” and will not every buy, regardless of the changes they make to the sales pitch.)
  • They don’t realize the breadth of skills, experience, networks, and tools required to understand customers and users.

You may download a PDF of this article from: Education skills and tools for an early stage startup V1

What is a startup?

A startup is a temporary organization designed to search out a repeatable, scalable, and profitable business model.

A startup needs to organize its knowledge and resources. The founders need to have, learn, or get access to skills, experience, tools, and networks.

There are 12 sets of education, skills, and tool to enable understanding of customers.

#1 Find people to guide and advise you in your journey

The critical action is for the founders to create relationships with people they can learn from.  These may include: coaches, mentors, advisors, incubators, accelerators, etc.  The challenge for the founders is to find those people who can truly enable success.  There is a shortage of talent that can help founders learn how to succeed.

#2 Education and Learning – courses and books

I recommend the Udacity free course “How to build a startup”. This will provide founders with an overall framework on how to organize their knowledge and actions for launching a startup. Take notes.  If you don’t take notes, there is limited value in taking the course.  https://www.udacity.com/course/how-to-build-a-startup–ep245

#3 Business Model Canvas

The BMC (Business Model Canvas) is the foundation of your startup.  The BMC describes the value a startup can offers its customers, why they buy from you and illustrates the capabilities and resources required to create, market, and deliver this value and to generate profitable, sustainable revenue streams. What customer problems are your solving? What customer needs are you addressing?  What benefits and value are you enabling customers to achieve?

The BMC is a one-page document. The Udacity course will guide you with creating the BMC and has many examples of the one-page document. The following is a template you may use.

https://neoschronos.com/download/business-model-canvas/docx/

The BMC is the central hub for everything the startups is learning.  All the facts, analysis, and assumptions in the pitch decks are from the BMC.  All the supporting information is linked to the BMC.

You manage the point-form information in the BMC:

  • All assumptions in italics. On day one of launching the startup, it’s likely that all of the entries will be assumptions.
  • When assumptions are invalidated, due to input from customers, users, and other fact-based analysis, the assumption is crossed out, with a footnote referencing the document which contains the rationale for invalidation.
  • When an assumption is validated, there is a footnote referencing the document which contains the rationale for validation.

There will be multiple versions of the BMC over time.  You won’t be able to show all of the invalidated assumptions.  New assumptions will be made.  Only the most important validations will remain on the BMC. Less important validations will be dropped from the one-page BMC.  You may decide to keep an appendix which contains all the of the invalidations and validations.

#4 Interviewing customers and users.

  • The Udacity course makes clear the need to interview customers and users right from the start up the launch. The need to interview customers is also outlined in this article:
    1. Talk to 100 customers before you launch https://medium.com/build-something-cool/yes-you-should-talk-to-100-customers-before-launch-afa1962f5c7
  • Some ideas on how to structure interviews and an interview guide are in the following book:
    1. Chapter 15 “Stage One: Empathy” from “Lean Analytics – Use data to build better startups faster” by Eric Ries. Available on Amazon
  • Some thoughts on how to analyze interviews:
    1. You must do a thematic analysis and code the interview response.
    2. https://uxplanet.org/how-to-analyze-user-interviews-250fddb1e8d7
  • Possible software to help with interview analysis
    1. Excel pivot table can analyze the coded interview responses. This should be sufficient in the early days of the startup.
    2. There are also software packages.
    3. https://blog.hubspot.com/service/qualitative-data-analysis-software
  • The team needs to have or learn the skills needed to:
    1. Plan for an interview. The objective is to validate or invalidate assumptions.
    2. Conduct an interview. Not everyone has the skills and personality to conduct interviews. Two people should be in an interview.  One person is taking detailed notes.
    3. Produce a one-page summary analysis

#5 Surveying customers and users

  • The team needs to have or learn the skills needed to survey large number of potential customers and users.
    1. Planning for the survey.
    2. Conducting the survey
    3. Analysing the survey
  • Survey software is helpful to reach out to and analyze responses from a large number of potential customers and users.
  • The final outcome will be a one-page summary analysis

#6 Managing the large number of relationships

You will be interviewing, surveying and meeting hundreds of potential customers, users, and others.

You need a process and tool to keep track of these relationships and help you manage them.

  • A CRM (Customer Relationship Management) software tool is very helpful.

#7 One-page Gannt chart, showing critical milestones

#8 Your startup is a project.

Project management processes and software may be helpful. When there are just a few founders, the very early project management may consist of:

  • The one-page Gantt chart with milestones, likely done in a tool like PowerPoint.
  • One page showing key tasks for the next 7 days.
  • A meeting at the beginning of each day to outline what will be done that day.
  • A meeting at the end of the day to discuss learning and issues.

#9 Collaboration is needed, especially with teams not in one physical location.

  • Collaboration may include: working together on documents and sharing them, messaging, team meetings (phone and video), virtual whiteboards, etc.
  • Collaboration may occur among the startup team, advisors, and others.

#10 Monthly cash flow forecast

  • The cash flow forecast helps the startup identify what is being done with cash, where revenue will come from and when additional cash is required from the founders, friends and family, governments, or 3rd party investors. The founders need to ensure the startup manages its cash to survive.
  • The monthly cash flow forecast will be detailed. It will be summarized in one page.

#11 Virtual data room

  • The startup will be generating a variety of documents with many versions.
  • These need to be organized into a single data room, shared among the startup and 3rd
  • It’s crucial that each document’s file name contain the date the document was created or last modified. The content of each document must also contain the date and page number, to enable discussion among the startup team and 3rd
  • The data room must also be backed up.

#12 Creating presentations, documents and videos

The startup will be creating presentations, and videos.  A single set of integrated tools is helpful.

Your next steps

  • Find people to and advise you in your journey. They could be mentors, incubators, accelerators, etc.
  • Create your plan to understand your potential customers.
  • Determine and acquire the necessary education, skills, and tools.
  • You are focused on creating five one-page documents:
    1. The business model canvas, which describes what you will build to solve customer and user problems.
    2. One-page summary of customer and user interviews – identifying and validating customer and user problems.
    3. One-page summary of customer and user surveys – validate or invalidate of the assumptions regarding customer and user problems.
    4. One-page Gannt chart illustrating what you will accomplish and by when.
    5. One-page cash flow summary illustrating the cash needed to accomplish the milestones in the one-page Gantt chart.
  • It’s likely that you may replace many of the tools as your startup grows and transitions to a business. It is not appropriate to have the tools needed to run a billion-dollar global company on the first day that you launch your startup.

Why do startup CEOs fail? V4

The three-fold purpose of this article:

  • Help startup CEOs and founders understand themselves and identify potential fatal flaws.
  • Help investors, and others, assess startup CEOs and founders.
  • Help assess the CEO’s of traditional established companies.

The following is focused on software and high-tech startups.  Many of the concepts apply to other situations.  CEO failure results from an inter-related set of experience, skills, character, personality, values, morals, ethics, and luck.

You may download a PDF of this article from: Why do startup CEOs fail V4

Research regarding the most critical traits of successful founders.1

Founders with complementary skills sets tend to be successful. “The best founders know their strengths and weaknesses and recruit a complementary team.” Founders of all ages can be successful.  Age is not a predictor of success.”

There are three archetypes of successful founders:

  • Humble Operator: Exceptional at execution, extremely humble while confident in themselves. They are resourceful and gritty. People who worked with them before tend to follow them.
  • Agile Visionary: Usually first-time founders, they are young, visionary, and driven by a desire for greatness. They have a unique perspective on the market they’re going after and an intuitive sense of what their customers want. They test and iterate quickly to incorporate market signals.
  • Seasoned Executive: Experienced older founders, they often have 5+ years of management experience and deep industry expertise. They are intrinsically motivated to build a company. They may have started a company before.

There are three archetypes of unsuccessful founders:

  • Passionate Outsider: Usually first-time founders, they are humble and hard-working. However, they don’t have good founder-market fit and don’t have a complementary cofounder to rectify this gap.
  • Overconfident Storyteller: Charismatic, compelling, and have high confidence. They are likely to be solo founders and they are often not humble.
  • Stubborn Individualist: Slow to adapt to learnings from the market and not empathetic to what the customers want. They are not good at articulating a convincing narrative.

Successful founders have four superpowers:

  • Running her company effectively day-to-day, learning and adapting quickly
  • Results driven i.e. exploring many solutions to quickly finding the best one.
  • Customer empathy, which enables finding product-market fit.
  • Agile thinking i.e. able to iterate quickly based on market feedback, but at the same time persistently focused on the vision.

Successful CEOs have founder-market fit.

Founders with a deep understanding of the market have founder-market fit.  There are 4 signs of founder-market fit:

  • The founders are obsessed with the market. They are obsessed with market knowledge.  This results in them knowing everything about the market, what a day-in-the life of a customer looks like, the customer’s urgent problems, the competitors, et.
  • The founders’ personal stories. Customers are excited by personal stories which explain why the founders are obsessed.
  • Personality is the ability to build a network in the market and the market’s ecosystem.
  • Experience but not so much experience that the founders are constrained in their ability to disrupt, and to be able to see new and innovative ways of doing things. The degree of appropriate historical market/industry experience varies by market. e.g. Developing a new drug requires a degree of past experience.

The first point-of-failure is when the CEO is thinking of founding a company and becoming CEO.  Examine yourself.  Do you already have the characteristics of someone who is likely to fail?

  • Not able to clearly communicate on why starting the company and what the idea is.
  • Not having a very broad set of knowledge or being able to quickly learn a broad set. A startup CEO does it all without the infrastructure of a large company to support her.
  • Not relentless and able to overcome all obstacles.
  • Not able to do things quickly.
  • Not able to quickly learn from mistakes.
  • Not able to work long hours for many years. The average time for a SaaS startup to exit or IPO is 9 years.  But the vast majority fail.
  • Not willing to take risks. The majority of startup CEOs are forced to leave the company at some stage of funding.
  • Not able to minimize cash spending.
  • Not having the funds (personal savings, family, and friends) to live for a significant period of time without income from your company.
  • Not able to ruthlessly prioritize time e.g. who to meet vs who not to meet; problems which must be solved vs can be ignored.
  • Not having the personality and skills to build a broad set of trusted relationships with potential customers, suppliers, employees, advisors, investors, etc.
  • Not able to attract appropriate coaches, mentors and advisors. There are major differences between star athletes and star coaches.  The same person is rarely a star in both fields.
  • Not able to listen, and clearly understand what the other person intends to communicate.
  • Not willing to go all-in
  • Not extremely intelligent.

The second-point-of failure is when the CEO makes a poor selection of co-founder(s) and is not able to manage co-founder(s).

  • Not able to select co-founders with the range of experience and skills necessary for short-term team success. Co-founders should bring diverse experience and skills, resulting in the pool of capabilities necessary to create and launch the company.
  • Not selecting co-founders with similar objectives, character, values, morals, ethics, and time lines.
  • Not picking founders who have the personal financial resources to live until the company can afford to pay them or third-party investors can provide financial support.
  • Not having a common understanding of what each co-founder will contribute e.g. # of hours, capital, finding capital, creating the product or service.
  • Doesn’t have the skills to make the founders work well together.
  • Not being clear on how decisions are made, and who makes them.
  • Doesn’t ensure that the founders are physically located together and working together.
  • Unable to articulate and help the all the co-founders understand and support the higher purpose of the company. If the only purpose is to make money, the chances of long-term success are low.
  • Not having a common understanding of how much of the company the founders are willing to give up in return for capital.
  • Not documenting expectations and assumptions. This leads to future confusion and disagreements. “People forget 40%-80% of what they hear immediately.   Half the information people do recall, is recalled incorrectly”2

 Your next steps

Regardless of the situation, the CEO or founders need the capabilities to be successful in the next 24 months and to be competitively differentiated from the CEOs/founders of competitors.

  • If you are a startup CEO or founder: Assess your self and compare that to how others view you.
  • If you are an investor, advisor, someone planning to join the startup CEO: Review the above criteria and prepare your own list of criteria. Identify the deal-killers or fatal flaws and the criteria that are important. Assess the CEO or founders. You don’t want to be associated with a CEO or founders who will likely fail.
  • If you are the board of directors or major investor in a traditional established company: Prepare you own list of criteria. Identity the deal-killer criteria i.e. whether to terminate existing CEO, not to appoint a candidate as CEO or not to invest in the company.  Identify the criteria that are important. Assess the CEO. Boards should not a have a CEO who is likely to fail.  Investors should not deploy capital to CEOs who are likely to fail.

 Footnote

1 Basis Set Ventures, a San Francisco early stage fund, surveyed other funds to understand their opinion of the traits of successful vs unsuccessful founders.  https://www.basisset.ventures/founder-superpowers

2 Lindsay Wizowski, Theresa Harper, and Tracy Hutchings, Writing Health Information for Patients and Families 4th Edition (Hamilton Health Sciences, 2014), Page 5

Further Reading

How do  venture capitalists assess teams https://koorandassociates.org/selling-a-company-or-raising-capital/how-do-venture-capitalists-assess-teams/

 

Startup investment memo

The purpose of this article.

The two-fold purpose of this article is to:

  • Provide an investment memo template for a startup investor, investment fund, or angel group.
  • Enable early stage startups to understand how they will be assessed.

This article is linked to “Due diligence questions for an early stage startup”1

You may download a PDF of this article from: Startup investment memo

There are three phases to an early stage startup.

Startup

  • A startup is a temporary organization designed to search out a repeatable and scalable business model. Lots of learning experiments are carried out. The focus is on getting some delighted cash paying customers.
  • A business model describes how a company creates value for itself while delivering products or services to customers. What are you building and for whom? What urgent problems and needs are you solving?

 Preparing to scale

The startup believes it has a business model which can meet the needs of a large number of cash paying customers. The focus shifts to putting in place cost-efficient and easily scalable technology, processes, and talent.

Scaling

The focus shifts to growing the:

  • geographies
  • marketing, sales, delivery resources and activities.
  • channels and distribution partners.
  • Customer segments.

The purpose of the Investment Memo .

Recommend whether or not the investment is appropriate to proceed to the term sheet stage. The Investment Memo is based on:

  • The answers from the early stage company to the due diligence questions.
  • Additional facts gathered from third party questions.
  • Analysis of the collected facts.
  • Investor judgement, based on a variety of criteria.

In an early stage fund, the investment memo is presented to the partners to explain why the investment should be made, or not made.

The investor will have used simple criteria to quickly filter out early stage companies before devoting time in due diligence E.g.

  • After spending less than 5 minutes reading an emailed application.
  • After a 15-minute phone call or meeting.
  • After listening to a pitch at an event.

A deal-killer recommendation.

Each investment fund will have some deal-killer criteria. If the startup-meets any one of these criteria, there is no deal.  The deal-killer criteria vary by fund.  E.g. market size is too small, founders are not trust-worthy, no potential customer interviews or surveys, etc. Deal-killer criteria could include not answering, or unable to answer, critical due diligence questions.

In this situation, the investment memo only one-page long.

Investment Memo with no deal killers – the process.

 The detailed structure of the Investment Memo follows the structure of the due diligence questions for the startup.

For each question, indicate whether the questions were answered, whether or not there are any issues, and what validation was done.  Validation can include: talking with 3rd party experts, doing independent primary and secondary research, preparing analysis separate from that submited by the startup.  I’ll indicate below some possible approaches to validation in each section of the investment memo.

There is a one-summary, which includes the recommendation.  Each section in the summary has 1-2 lines.

Recommendation: either proceed to a term sheet OR recommend not to proceed with the reasons why.

Each of the six sections in the one-page summary also contains: recommendation: yes or no and why, plus any critical read flags

  • How does the company create value for customers and itself?
  • What are the plans?
  • Investor specific
  • What is being asked of the investor?
  • Legal documents
  • Historical results.

Detailed report

Each section of the detailed report starts with the summary information from the one-page summary.

Each section/subsection of the report contains:

  • Indication of whether or not the due diligence question was answered
  • Indication of whether the answer was a “pass” or “fail”.
  • Any red flags.
  • Any input from third party experts.
  • Any input from the investors primary and secondary research.
  • Any results from the actions noted below.

#1 How does the company create value for customers and itself

Target Customers

  • Interview potential and current customers.
  • Assess market size determination (TAM, SAM, and SOM) and review sources cited.

Value proposition

  • Review some or all interview notes from potential or current customers.
  • Review some or all survey responses from potential or current customers.
  • Review analysis of interview notes and survey responses.
  • Interview potential and current customers

Channels

  • Review some or all interview notes from potential or current customers.
  • Review some or all survey responses from potential or current customers.
  • Review analysis of interview notes and survey responses.
  • Interview potential and current customers regarding their expectations.
  • Review detailed financial information to validate appropriate allocation of costs & revenue to: CAC (Customer Acquisition Costs) and calculation of LTV (Life Time Value)
  • Review calculation of the churn rate.

Key Partners

  • Interview current and potential partners.

Key resources

  • If patents, check with patent offices
  • If trademarks, run a trade mark check
  • If contracts, call third parties to validate
  • Have all required resources been identified?

Key Activities

  • Have all required activities been identified?

Cost structure

  • Assess whether the cost-drivers are in fact cost-drivers.

Charging customers

  • Review some or all interview notes from potential or current customers regarding value and pricing.
  • Review some or all survey responses from potential or current customers regarding value and pricing.
  • Review analysis of interview notes and survey responses regarding value and pricing.
  • Interview potential and current customers regarding their expectations regarding value and pricing.
  • What are competitors or similar companies charging?

Talent

  • Assess team bios for relevant skills and experience
  • Run a background check on the team.
  • Are the founders emotional or irrational under pressure?
  • Do the founders have empathy?
  • Are the founders unable to clearly and easily communicate their pitch.
  • Are the founders arrogant or overconfident?
  • Are the founders transparent and honest?
  • Are the founders fully committed or is this a part time effort?

#2 What are the plans?

  • Does the 24-month Gantt chart reflect the key milestones?
  • Is the 24-month Gantt chart plausible?
  • Review the detailed allocation of costs and revenues to validate the calculation of LTV and CAC.
  • How does the LTV to CAC ratio change in the cash flow forecast? How does it vary by customer segment, channel, and partner?

#3 Investor specific

  • Are the presentation decks (oral and standalone) consistent with the rest of the due diligence material.
  • What are the issues with the current and forecast cap table? Do the founders have enough equity.
  • What are the options for an investor exit?
  • How long has the fundraising round been open, what’s been committed, by whom?
  • Who is the lead investor and what is their reputation?
  • Are previous investors following on? If not, why not?

#4 What is being asked of the investor?

  • What are the issues regarding terms and valuation?

#5 Legal documents

  • Who has the legal right to make what kinds of decisions under what conditions? Review loan agreements, voting trust agreements, shareholder agreements, board of directors and committee mandate, delegation of authority to CEO, etc.

#6 Historical results

By target segment, by channel, by partner, by cohort.

  • Monthly growth rate in number of cash paying customers, and revenue.
  • New customer value achievement leading indicator (e.g. for Slack it was 2,000 team messages sent within 60 days).
  • New customer success metric (e.g. % of new customers achieving new customer value achievement indicator within 60-90 days).
  • NPS (Net Promoter Score)
  • How many similar competitors have failed in the past? Why? How is this startup different?

Next steps

Regardless of what type of investor you are:

  • Prepare your list of deal-killer criteria and deal-killer unanswered questions.
  • Prepare a one-page investment memo.
  • Customize the due diligence questions and due diligence report to reflect the specific nature of investor and the nature of the investment. The due diligence questions, due diligence report, due diligence cost and time invested will be very different for an angle investor contemplating a $25,000 investment in a pre-revenue company vs an investment funding contemplating a $10 million investment in a company that is scaling.

Footnotes:

1 Due diligence questions for an early stage startup: https://koorandassociates.org/selling-a-company-or-raising-capital/due-diligence-questions-for-an-early-stage-startup/

Further Reading

Definition of startup terminology and metrics: https://koorandassociates.org/selling-a-company-or-raising-capital/startup-terminology-and-metrics/

Red flags for any investor to consider:  https://medium.com/swlh/red-flag-list-for-vc-deals-9beea446270d

Focus your project on user and customer value achievement

Focus your project on user and customer value achievement

The two-fold purpose of this article is to:

  • Enable boards of directors and CEOs to better assess projects and potential project success.
  • Enable those preparing project presentations and business cases to increase the success of project success.

Projects which succeed in enabling users/customers to achieve value have a greater potential of achieving revenue and profits.

Looking back over the past 40 years, many, perhaps most, of the project presentations and business cases that I have led or have seen contained major flaws, which led to reduced or no benefits. The following outlines my current thinking, based on observations of countless initiatives and research.

You may download a PDF of this article from: Focus your project on user and customer value achievement

What is a customer value achievement project?

  • Create a sustainable scaling product/service which profitably enables users/customers (e.g. users are people doing searches on Google, customers are people paying money to advertise on Google) to achieve value in a changing competitive environment.
  • Many projects will not succeed, especially those innovating with new target users/customers, new user/customer problems, new channels, new partners, etc.

How to read this article

This article outlines the different components of the project starting with the oral presentation.

 The project has three phases

  • The startup phase, which concludes with the determination that there are a sufficient number of potential cash paying customers to create a scalable solution. Many projects will be terminated before this phase completes. The initial capital approval will be at most to complete this phase. Additional capital may be required during this phase, depending upon what is learned.
  • The getting ready to scale phase concludes with the business having the talent and cost-efficient scalable resources and activities in place. Additional capital approval(s) will be required for this phase.
  • The scaling phase, focuses on increasing the number of distribution channel and partners, combined with marketing and sales investments. Additional capital and resources may be required.

 The 20-minute oral presentation of your project

The purpose of the oral presentation is to demonstrate the leader’s:

  • In depth understanding of the project.
  • Ability to communicate complex ideas and concepts in an easy to understand manner.

The leader’s oral presentation will have 10 sections.

  • What is the problem and who has it (target users/customers)?
  • How will the users/customers see and achieve the benefits of your solution?
  • Why is now the right time to do this project?
  • What is the size of the market i.e. how many users have an urgent need and how much customer would be willing to save money?1
  • What is the product and/or service you are going to create?
  • Who is the project team and what is their relevant experience? The team may include advisors, consultants and partners.
  • What is the business model? e. how you are going to get users/customers and how will you make money?
  • Who is the competition and how are you unique?
  • What are the financials i.e. 24-month cash flow forecast by month as well as years 3-5 by year.
  • What are you asking for to launch the first phase of the project?

The outcomes of the project leader’s oral presentation

The main outcomes of the project leader’s oral presentation are that the audience will:

  • Support sending the project onto due diligence.
  • Have trust and confidence in the leader.
  • Have a clear understanding of who the users and customers will be, their urgent problems and needs, and the potential revenue from cash paying customers.
  • Know how the solution will meet the customers needs and problems.
  • Understand why users and customers will prefer this solution to the competitions.
  • Have confidence that the leader and her team have the relevant skills, and plans to close any skill gaps.
  • Trust that the leader will carefully manage the capital and resources based upon seeing a 24-month cash flow forecast, by month.
  • Understand that the initial project stages will consist of a series of experiments, prototypes, pilots, and phased releases reflecting the requirement to constantly validate user/customer problems as well as what the customer is actually willing to pay for.

The due diligence done on the project

The due diligence will include: review of material, calls/meeting with customers, and potential customers, calls. meetings with team members, and in-depth Q&A sessions with the leader and team. The written material for due diligence is in an online data room.

The outcome of due diligence is an IM (Investment Memo) which is the  recommendation as to whether or not to proceed.  The IM is based on the information provided by the project, information collected by the due diligence team, and due diligence team analysis and judgement.

The written material in the data room will include:

  • Who are your target user/customer segments? What is the user/customer market size?1 How did you validate your assumptions?
  • What is the customer’s perceived value proposition of your solution? How are you different from, and better than, the competition?  The value proposition includes all of the customers’ costs and benefits associated with adopting your solution, which includes any transition costs from existing solutions.
  • What are your customers’ expectations of their relationship with you? g., if it’s a software product, how often will there be updates with new features?  How easy will it be to install a new version?  Will customer service be a chatbot or a live person? Etc.
  • What will be your channels to the customer?
    1. Communications channels with potential customers?
    2. Sales channels which result in a sales transaction?
    3. Logistics channels which deliver the product or service to the customer?
  • Who are your key partners? A partner is more than a channel. A partner may be: enhancing your credibility due to their reputation; adding value to your solution due to their resources; or enabling you to close sales.
  • What are the key activities? Which processes and actions are required to manage partners, channels, and resources in order to enable customers to achieve their value proposition.
  • What are the key resources to enable customers to achieve their value proposition? These include: intellectual property, technology, people, contracts, financial and physical assets.
  • What is the cost structure to create and deliver the value proposition?
  • What are the revenue streams? These could include: subscription-based per person per month, free for a basic service, with multiple tiers of extra services with fees, etc.
  • What’s the talent required for the project? What are the gaps and your plans to address the gaps?  What are the project team member descriptions and how are their skills, experience, and network relevant to this project?
  • What is the 24-month cash forecast, by month, showing key milestones and accomplishments.
  • The oral presentation deck. Designed to support the oral presentation. Lots of visuals, with few words.
  • The written presentation deck

Ongoing project reporting

The following reporting is ongoing from startup through to the business scaling the solution

The written report will include:

  • New customer value achievement leading indicator (e.g. for Slack it was 2,000 team messages sent within 60 days).
  • New customer success metric (e.g. % of new customers achieving new customer value achievement indicator within 60-90 days).
  • Net Promoter Score.2
  • Customer churn.
  • Customer retention.
  • Customer acquisition costs.
  • Lifetime customer value.
  • Issue and problems – there are always problems and issues
  • What help is needed – help is always needed
  • 24-month cash flow forecast – actuals vs plan

There is a monthly review meeting 100% focused on issues, problems, and the asks for help.  The written report is distributed and read prior to the meeting.

Any requests for additional capital will require an updated Investment Memo,

Startup Phase

The additional reporting in the startup phase reflects that there may be many experiments, pilots/prototypes, and a series of evolving revenue generating solution, until the project determine whether there is a solution which meets the cash spending demands of a large enough number of customers and the needs of enough users.  What’s being done is often inefficient and even manual.

Reporting reflects what is being learned, what assumptions are validated or invalidated and what new assumptions are being made.

Getting ready to scale phase

The additional reporting in this phase is now focused on the efficient gaining of users/customers and the profitable meeting of their needs.  (e.g. The onboarding process in the startup phase may have had the CEO call each person who signed up on the website within 30 seconds.  This will be impractical in the long term) The reporting will reflect the talent, process, and technology changes required.

Scaling phase

The additional reporting will reflect the learnings and associated metrics arising from: new geographies, new distribution channels, new partners, etc.

Your next steps

  • Document your current project approval and project management process.
  • Compare your current situation to what I’ve outlined above.
  • Identify the critical improvement requirements and related assumptions.
  • Begin piloting the revised project approval and project management process to validate your assumptions.

 Footnotes

1 Market size

What is TAM (Total Addressable Market)?

  • What would be the project’s revenues with their future solution if 100% of the customers demanding a solution to their problem bought the project’s solution. This assumes all potential distribution channels and partners
  • There is a critical difference between customer needs and customer demands. Customers have a large number of needs.  Demand is customers deciding that they will spend time, effort, and money to get a solution for what they believe is an urgent need.  Often this means that customers will spend less money to meet other needs.
  • Is the project’s TAM large enough to launch and grow the company? For example, the global smart phone TAM is huge, but the global TAM for smart phones that have a keyboard is tiny.
  • The best way to calculate TAM is with a bottom up calculation, starting with a clear description of the target customer segment, its needs, and then considering the subset of customers who will actually provide revenue, and the revenue per customer. Recognize not everyone in every country will be able to afford the solution.

What is SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)?

  • This is the portion of the TAM that is within the reach the project’s distribution channels and partners, and your ability to deliver and support your solution. Geography may be a constraint. This still assumes 100% market share of those customers demanding a solution. SAM will change over time, as growth occurs in geography, the number of distribution channels and partners, and the volumes from each distribution channel and partner.
  • How will customers connect with the startup?  If they are seeking a solution, how will they find the project?  How will the project make customers aware of the solution?

What is SOM (Serviceable Attainable Market or Share of Market)?

  • SOM will be lower than SAM for two reasons: there will be competitors, and every customer who is demanding a solution may not actually buy a solution.

TAM, SAM, and SOM will vary at different points of the 5-year forecast.  TAM, SAM, and SOM will also change as the project validates assumptions by progressing through: initial assumptions, customers interviews, feedback from prototype in customers hands, feedback from initial revenue producing customers, feedback from MVP (initial revenue producing customers who are delighted from the initial set of value they achieve from the solution), customer feedback as solution capabilities are enhanced to provide value to a greater set of customers, etc.

2 NPS (Net Promoter Score) The single most important question is asking  “Would you recommend our solution to others?”  (Follow on questions could be “If so, why?  If not, why not?”) This metric is known as NPS.  What is your NPS? Above 0 is good. Above 50 is excellent. Above 70 is world class. How do you compare to your industry and competitors? What has been your NPS trend?

The Net Promoter Score concept was initially developed by Bain.  The following is a link to the Bain website homepage for Net Promoter Score, which contains several short articles:

http://www.netpromotersystem.com/about/why-net-promoter.aspx

The following is a quick overview of using Net Promoter Scores:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shephyken/2016/12/03/how-effective-is-net-promoter-score-nps/#1b1391b423e4

 

 

 

Can your CEO pass this simple startup investor test?

The two-fold purpose of this article is to:

  • Enable CEO’s of established revenue generating companies to identify some potential survival issues.
  • Enable startup founders to assess if they have some deal-killer issues from an investors point of view and from a survival perspective.

You may download a PDF of this article from:  Can your CEO pass this simple startup investor test

Investors, advisors, the board of directors, employees, and others may already be aware of the CEO/founders issues.  This process is intended to increase the CEO/founder self-awareness.

The following are some questions that you can ask the CEO in a 20-minute period.  The questions are those that some investors use to screen out in a quick phone call early stage companies seeking funding.  These questions are known as deal-killers. Individual investors will have various deal-killer issues.

If the existing company has more than one business unit, with different target users/customers (e.g. users are people using Google to do searches, customers are people paying Google to advertise), then the question should be asked of the business unit leader.  The questions can also be adapted for internal users/customers

Deal-Killer Questions

The following questions are those investor deal-killers for a pre-revenue company.  The questions are valid for any stage and size of company. When asking your CEO these questions, remember that much of the actual work and  analysis may have been done by others in the company.  These questions identify if that work has been done and the degree of the CEO’s understanding.

  • Who are the target users/customers and what are their urgent problems or needs?
  • How did you calculate the market size? Number of customers, users, and revenue if you had 100% market share with all possible distribution channels and partners?  Number of customers, users, and revenue if you had 100% market share using your initial or current distribution channels or partners?  What is your initial or current market share, recognizing that not everyone will actually buy, there will be adoption rates as well as competition.
  • How many potential customers did you interview to validate the assumptions above and what did your learn from your interviews? What did you do differently as a result of your learnings?
  • Can your solution easily be duplicated or copied by other companies? What is unique and hard for others to copy?
  • Would you be willing to step aside, if necessary, for another CEO? If so, why?  If not, why not?

How do the questions address deal-killer issues?

The deal-killer issues I use are:

There is not a large number of people with a problem or need they are willing to spend money on.

  • If the market size isn’t large, then investors are not interested.
  • Many startups merely copy a few numbers from consulting report and don’t do their own bottom up analysis supported by potential user/customer interviews.
  • Existing companies must do ongoing user/customer interviews, and surveys to understand the changing user/customer needs as well as user/customer perception of your company’s solution relative to competition.
  • This insight is provided by questions 1,2,3,4

The CEO/founder is not coachable.

  • Some signs that a CEO is not coachable include: They always think they’re right and don’t possess the ability to self-reflect; They are not willing to experiment, learn new things and are not open to change; They are arrogant about their intellectual prowess; They usually are rolling eyes during constructive criticism; They have answers to every question without even questioning the logic of their answers; They react negatively to any constructive criticism; and they are disrespectful of others and/or others’ opinions.
  • Being coachable means: being open to radical changes; when getting constructive criticism, they ask themselves “What can be the benefit of this feedback to me and what is there for me to learn from this feedback?”; They are comfortable acknowledging their ignorance and are willing to do the work in order to fill the gaps in their knowledge.
  • They need to be coachable because they need to learn from users/customers, advisors, investors, distribution channels, partners, and others in order to change their behaviors and actions in an environment where unexpected change is a constant.
  • This insight is provided by question 4.

The solution is easy to copy and duplicate or is already a common commodity solution.

  • Investors seek what is both unique and hard for competitors to copy.
  • New technology and new intellectual property may be hard to copy.
  • There are markets where all solutions get copied, thus the key actions are: understand the user/customers better than the competition; enable users/customers to obtain value quicker than the competition.
  • This insight is provided by question 5.

 The CEO/founder is unwilling to step aside, if necessary, for another CEO.

  • The majority of startup CEOs/founders will end up stepping aside (either voluntarily or forcibly). Few CEOs are like Bill Gates, able to change and learn as they take a startup to a massive global company.
  • CEOs need to understand that they are in place to meet the needs for a point in time (and the next 24 months) and that in 24 months time, they may not be the right person.
  • A CEO who refuses to recognize this will impact the value of any investment, plus result in a painful and costly CEO exit. The CEO may not be enabling the development of a pool of qualified successors, both short-term and long-term.
  • This insight is provided by question 6.

Your next steps

If you are a startup CEO/founder:

  • Ask one of your trusted: investors, potential investors, advisory board members, board directors, or advisors to prepare their 4-5 deal-killer questions, which may be different from what I suggested.

If you are the CEO of an established revenue generating company:

  • Ask one of your trusted: investors, potential investors, advisory board members, board directors, or advisors to prepare their 4-5 deal-killer questions, which may be different from what I suggested. If you are a public company do not ask: investors, potential investors, or bord directors.

In either case:

  • The reason for a trusted person is the assumption that the CEO/founder will listen to and think about the feedback.
  • You should know the questions in advance.
  • You will be probed and asked for the logic and/or proof of your answers. Opinions, guesses, and hopes are of little value.
  • You will have a 20-minute discussion, in which you’ll be asked the questions. The discussion will be recorded.
  • The trusted person will review both their notes and the recording to set down their observations. The recording will then be destroyed.
  • The trusted person will then share their observations with you.

The implications of the constructive criticism observations:

If you are a startup CEO/founder:

  • The CEO/founder is not coachable. Investors will likely decide to not invest or continue investing.  Advisors will likely decide to not be involved, because there is little value and impact from their time investment.
  • There is not a large number of people with a problem or need they are willing to spend money on. If this is a result of logical, fact-based analysis, the investors will decide if the market size still warrants an investment.  If the CEO/founder is bootstrapping, the CEO/founder needs to determine if the potential warrants continuing.  If there has not been sufficient logical fact-based analysis of the target market, the CEO/founder may be coached on how to address this.
  • The solution is easy to copy and duplicate or is already a common commodity product. The CEO/founder will focus on how she will successfully compete against both current and future competitors. Investors will likely not invest.
  • The CEO/founder is not willing to step aside, if necessary, for another CEO. The CEO/founder will require coaching, assuming the CEO/founder is willing. The willingness may also come about when the startup runs into difficulty or when investors require a new CEO in return for funding.

If you are the CEO of an established revenue generating company:

  • The CEO is not coachable. The external environment (customers, competitors, technology, regulation, etc.) is transforming at an ever-increasing pace.  An uncoachable CEO, who cannot learn from others and continually transform themselves is dooming the company to eventual failure. Investors and the board of directors will sooner or later (unfortunately often later) make the decision to exit the CEO. /Advisors will likely decide to not be involved, because there is little value and impact from their time investment.
  • There is not a large number of people with a problem or need they are willing to spend money on. If this is a result of logical, fact-based analysis, the CEO needs to fundamentally rethink the target market and the solution.
  • The solution is easy to copy and duplicate or is already a common commodity product. The CEO needs to understand the logic and facts as to why the company has been successful in this environment, what needs to continue, and what needs to be transformed for continued success.
  • The CEO is not willing to step aside, if necessary, for another CEO. The CEO/founder will require coaching, assuming that they are willing. The willingness may also come about when the company runs into difficulty or when investors require a new CEO in return for funding. Investors and the board of directors will take actions to ensure that qualified successors are available.  The investors and board of directors will also prepare and maintain an exit plan for the CEO, which may be triggered at any point.

Traditional strategic planning dooms companies to failure.

The purpose of this article is two-fold:

  • Help traditional companies succeed when faced with successfully growing startups.
  • Help startups succeed when competing against traditional companies.

You may download a PDF of this article from: Traditional strategic planning dooms companies to failure

What is traditional strategic planning?

Wikipedia (April 20, 2020 definition)

Strategic planning is an organization’s process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy.  Strategy has many definitions, but generally involves setting strategic goals, determining actions to achieve the goals, and mobilizing resources to execute the actions. A strategy describes how the ends (goals) will be achieved by the means (resources).

Advice from strategy advisors

The following are some example of the advice from advisors regarding strategic planning.  Remember, it is up to the boards of directors to approve the strategy and for the CEO and management team to execute.

McKinsey Article “How to Improve strategic planning”1

  • Start with the issues. g. ask CEOs what the issues are, ask CEOs what the 12-month priorities are, interview middle and lower management to identify the issues.
  • Bring together the right people.
  • Adapt planning cycles to the needs of each business.
  • Implement a strategic-performance-management system.
  • Integrate human-resources systems into the strategic plan.

BCG (Boston Consulting Group) article  “Your strategy process needs a strategy 2

There are five broad approaches to strategy:

  • Classical – analysis, planning, and execution
  • Adaptive – continual experimentation and scaling up of what works. General Electric was the example of a company adopting an adaptive strategy in 2011. I observed that GE’s adaptive strategy took 2011 revenues of  $146.5 billion and profits of $13.1 billion to 2018 revenues of $121.6 billion and a loss of $22.8 billion.
  • Visionary – use of imagination to create a game-changing product, service, or business model.
  • Shaping – collaboration in environments that are simultaneously unpredictable and malleable.
  • Renewal – execution of necessary radical changes when the environment is harsh or there has been a protracted mismatch between the firm’s strategy and its environment

My observations of traditional strategic plans

  • They are inwardly focused and driven by financial objectives set by the board.
  • Limited facts regarding how users/customers behave and perceive the company. However, there are lots of opinions and anecdotes.
  • Significant time is spent on vision and mission.
  • The bulk of the effort is on allocating financial resources.
  • The implicit assumption is that only need to improve what worked last year.

 What are the results of traditional strategic planning?

Few companies survive

Most public companies will not survive. 3

  • A Fortune 500 company will survive an average of 16 years.
  • The typical half-life of a North American public company is 10 years.
  • Global public companies with $250 million+ market cap have a typical half-life of 10 years.
  • 50% of all U.S. companies survive for 5 years.

 Few companies generate significant value.

  • McKinsey analyzed the world’s 2,393 largest corporations from 2010 to 2014. The top 20% generated 158% of the total economic profit (i.e. profit after cost of capital) created by those corporations.  This was an average economic profit of $1,426 million per year. The middle 60% generated little economic profit, an average of $47 million per year. The bottom 20% all generated negative economic profit, with an average loss of $670 million per year.4
  • Mark Leonard, CEO of Constellation Software, said in his final annual CEO letter. “Qualified and competent Directors are very rare, and not surprisingly, the track record of most boards is awful. According to the 2017 Hendrik Bessembinder study of approximately 26,000 stocks in the CRSP database, only 4% of the stocks generated all of the stock market’s return in excess of one – month T-Bills during the last 90 years. The other 96% of the stocks generated, in aggregate, the T-bill rate over that period. This means that 4% of boards oversaw all the long-term wealth creation by markets during that period. Even more disturbing, the boards for over 50% of public companies saw their businesses generate negative returns during their entire existence as public companies.” 5

What is the approach used by successfully growing startups?

  • Focus on a target market with a large number of potential users and cash paying customers. e.g. people doing Google searches are users, people paying for ads are customers.
  • Making assumptions regarding users/customers, based on research. These assumptions include: the number potential customers with urgent needs they are willing to pay for, the benefit to the users/customers if their needs are addressed, the degree to which the benefit is greater than the current situation and the benefit achieved from competitors, and the price the customers might be willing to pay.  Document your assumptions regarding the users/customers value propositions.6
  • The most critical part of understanding is interviewing potential users/customers. This may range from 100 to 300 potential user/customer interviews.  This also provides validation that the potential users/customers believe the solution provides more value that the competition. Note that interviewing is very different from sales calls.
  • Quickly create a minimal solution and get it into users/customer hands. Keep experimenting and changing the initial solution until there are a group of delighted users/customers. Then start charging customers. At this point the solution delivery and sales process are not cost-efficient. At this point the startup doing things that do not scale.
  • Continue experimenting in stages, expanding the solution to meet a larger subset of the target users/customers, and growing the number of paying customers. The solution is still not cost efficient.
  • Implement user/customer focused metrics. There is a never-ending process understanding user/customer needs and measuring user/customer delight relative to the competition. Remember what happened to Blackberry – the number of people who needed keyboards on their phones disappeared.
  • Determine when the solution has reached the point of being able to delight the full scope of target users/customers.
  • At this point, make the solution delivery and sales processes cost efficient and rapidly grow the company.
  • Keep exploring and experimenting with new types of users/customers, new distribution channels, and new partners.
  • Resource allocation decisions driven by fact-based metrics on what large numbers of users/customers perceive as valuable. I recall reading a quote from Google’s CFO, when meeting with a product team. “Why aren’t a billion people using this? If there are a billion people using this, why aren’t we making money?”
  • The sales process is designed based on understanding users/customers and enabling them to achieve value. Most traditional sales processes are designed to sell a solution.
  • The investors, board of directors, advisory board, coaches, and mentors have skills, experience, and networks which the founders and management team lack. The founders and management team have a passion to learn and change.

Why do successful startups doom companies with traditional strategic planning?

Successful startup have a combination of factors driving long-term success while traditional companies with traditional strategic planning have a combination of factors driving long-term failure.

  • They constantly document their key assumptions and validate or invalidate those assumptions. Tradition companies don’t document their key assumptions and don’t constantly validate them, which inevitably leads to crises . “The assumptions on which the company has been built and is being run no longer fit reality.”7
  • Their investment decisions start with and are focused on enabling customers to meet urgent needs. Traditional strategic planning often starts what the company’s opinions and needs are e.g. financial objectives, vision, mission, etc.
  • They have ongoing measurement of how users/customers are achieving value. Traditional strategic planning lacks these facts.
  • They have ongoing measurement of how users/customers perceive the startup relative to competition. Traditional strategic planning lacks these facts.
  • They explicitly assume is that user/customer needs and the competition are constantly changing. Traditional companies assume that change is limited.
  • They are constantly conducting experiments with users/customers, channels, and partners to learn what is valuable to change and what isn’t. Traditional strategic planning is focused on a small number of large projects. Traditional companies don’t have a culture that enable and supports the fact that most experiments fail.
  • They have a passionate curiosity and desire to learn.
  • They minimize what they have to invent by drawing upon proven solutions which don’t impact the user/customer perception of competitive value.
  • They have investors, board directors, advisors, and coaches which provide skills, experience, knowledge, and networks the startup lacks. Traditional companies have board directors who lack skills, experience, knowledge and networks that company management lacks or is weak in.

The external environment has also changed dramatically, enabling startups to take customers from traditional companies.

  • There is unlimited capital (e.g. at least $1.5 trillion of uninvested private equity capital) available to fund startups and rapidly growing early stage companies.
  • The investors passionately support the concept of experimentation and realize that most experiments will fail and most startups will fail – a very different mindset from traditional companies
  • The investors are focused on picking talented founders and putting in additional value-added talent to support the founders.
  • It fast, easy, and low cost to get the infrastructure needed to launch a company e.g. financial systems, CRM, billing, etc.
  • It’s become easier to connect with potential customers via social media.
  • Customer needs and expectations are rapidly changing.

Your next steps.

If you are a traditional company with a traditional strategic planning process.

Assess your strategic planning outcomes:

  • The trend for your economic profit generation.
  • Revenue and free cash flow growth.
  • Market share growth.
  • New channels, new partners, new types of users and customers.

How does your planning process compare to the above approach used by successfully scaling startups?

What are your customer metrics?

  • New customer value achievement leading indicator (e.g. for Slack it was 2,000 team messages sent within 60 days).
  • New customer success metric (e.g. % of new customers achieving new customer value achievement indicator within 60-90 days).
  • Net Promoter Score.
  • Customer churn.
  • Customer retention.
  • Customer acquisition costs.
  • Lifetime customer value.

What changes to your planning process do you need to start experimenting with and learning from?

If you are a startup

  • Follow the approach used by successfully growing startups.
  • Ensure that your investors, board of directors, advisory board, coaches, and mentors have skills, knowledge, and networks that you lack or are weak in.
  • Start your metrics with assumptions regarding your user/customer value achievement leading indicator and your user/customer success metrics.
  • Once you have revenue paying customers, start with customer churn and customer retention metrics.
  • Understand your customer acquisition costs and lifetime customer value. You’ll need this understanding to make your startup efficient and scalable later on.

Read the research supporting the value of experimentation in the Further Reading section below

  Footnotes

1 Renée Dye and Oliver Sibony, “How to improve strategic planning”, McKinsey Quarterly, August 2007, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-to-improve-strategic-planning

2 Martin Reeves, Julien Legrand, and Jack Fuller November 14, 2018 BCG website, https://www.bcg.com/en-ca/publications/2018/your-strategy-process-needs-a-strategy.aspx

3 “Corporate Longevity”, Credit Suisse, February 7, 2017

4 Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, “Strategy to beat the odds”, McKinsey Quarterly February 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds

5 https://battleinvestmentgroup.com/effective-directors/

6 https://koorandassociates.org/understanding-customers/what-is-a-value-proposition/

7 Peter Drucker, Harvard Business Review, November 2009, Page 90

Further reading – Research supporting the value of rapid learning and experimentation

The Marshmallow Challenge is to build the largest freestanding structure with a marshmallow on top and using 20 spaghetti sticks, one yard of tape, and one yard of string.  This is done in small teams.

  • MBA students build structures with an average height of 10 inches.
  • Lawyers average 15-inch structures.
  • CEOs average 22-inch structures.
  • Kindergarten students average 26-inch structures.

What’s the difference in behaviour between MBA students and kindergarten students?

MBA students

  • First sort through who is the leader.
  • Then identify and debate options.
  • Then agree upon a single plan.
  • Then build the structure.
  • The final step is putting the marshmallow on top.
  • Very often the structure collapses at this point.

Kindergarten students

  • No time spent determining who is the leader, identifying or debating options, or creating a plan.
  • Immediately start to build something, with the marshmallow on top.
  • Keep experimenting and learning, building multiple structures until the time is up.

Major incentives result in MBA students teams almost always building structures which collapse.

  • Incentives, without the right mindset, produce worse results.

Teams made up of CEOs and executive assistants did better than kindergarten students.

  • Achieved about 30 inches.
  • The researchers have the hypothesis that the addition of a very different skill set: facilitation and process, enabled the CEOs to perform better than they could with only fellow CEOs.

My observations

  • The passion to begin learning and experimenting as quickly as possible is critical when the team is doing something that has not be done before.
  • Understand the range of skills needed. That’s why teams of CEOs and admin assistants performed much better than CEOs alone.
  • Understand when your startup is doing something new and unknown vs something that has been done before with a base of proven knowledge. In the Marshmallow Challenge teams of architects and structural engineers did the best of all because they knew how to design weight bearing structures. Your startup must know what skills, experience, knowledge and networks are needed in management, investors, board of directors, advisors and coaches.  Your startup needs to know where the gaps are, which are critical gaps, and how to close those gaps.  Your startup will also draw upon a broad range of existing proven solutions – not everything needs to ab an innovation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanfurr/2011/04/27/why-kindergartners-make-better-entrepreneurs-than-mbas-and-how-to-fix-it/#5047f0871394

https://hbr.org/2014/12/innovation-leadership-lessons-from-the-marshmallow-challenge

Tom Wujec’s TED Talk regarding findings from the Marshmallow Challenge

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0_yKBitO8M